Model for Election of the Chief Executive of Hong Kong, 2017

On 31st August, Beijing announced the framework for election of Hong Kong's Chief Executive in 2017. It basically ensures that Beijing can decide who becomes the next Chief Executive of Hong Kong before elections. This led to protest by hundreds of thousands of people. As a consequence, the society is polarized and the government finds it very difficult to govern.

Surely Beijing has better options to ensure that the desirable person get elected. Does Beijing see moves that I don't? Or was Beijing ill-advised?

Li Fei's election model

On 31st August, Beijing announced the framework for election of Hong Kong's Chief Executive in 2017. It says "the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress makes the following decision: [Numbering modified here]

1. Starting from 2017, the selection of the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region may be implemented by the method of universal suffrage.
2. When the selection of the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region is implemented by the method of universal suffrage:
   1. A broadly representative nominating committee shall be formed. The provisions for the number of members, composition and formation method of the nominating committee shall be made in accordance with the number of members, composition and formation method of the Election Committee for the Fourth Chief Executive.
   2. The nominating committee shall nominate two to three candidates for the office of Chief Executive in accordance with democratic procedures. Each candidate must have the endorsement of more than half of all the members of the nominating committee.
   3. All eligible electors of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region have the right to vote in the election of the Chief Executive and elect one of the candidates for the office of Chief Executive in accordance with law.
   4. The Chief Executive-elect, after being selected through universal suffrage, will have to be appointed by the Central People's Government."

Discontent by pro-democracy groups

Bejing's decision ignited strong reactions by pro-democracy groups in Hong Kong. Their discontent is based on the follow arguments. The nomination committee in the 2012 election comprised 1,200 members, representing 4 groups in Hong Kong. Over half of the committee members were pro-Beijing. Therefore, by requiring a candidate to receive support by half of the committee members, Beijing can make sure that every candidate nominated is approved by them.

Ignoring the people

Beijing attempted to defend the above decisions. The fact is: who wins the argument may not be so important. The important fact is that Beijing has ignored opinions of the people. Over 800,000 Hong Kong people (out of a population of 7 million) signed a petition against this decision which they they anticipated. Ignoring the opinion of a large population is almost certainly to cause unrest.

What to expect -- civil disobedience

Beijing could not have believed that the opposing people to accept the above decision quietly. Some of the opposing voices come from students. Beijing should have learned from the 1989 experience that students can be very persistent. This proved to be the case in Hong Kong.

Hundreds of thousands of people went to the street in 2014 on 28 September 2014 The police fired 87 tear gas shots, which led to more people going to the street. Protestors camped in Admiralty, Causeway Bay and Mongkok, blocking off the traffic. Occupation was eventually cleared on 14th December 2014.

The price to pay: an ungovernable Hong Kong

Beijing's alternatives

Beijing has many alternative ways to ensure that the desired candidate is appointed as the next Chief Executive of Hong Kong. Here are just a few suggestions:

• Beijing has power to reject winner of the election
• It doesn't matter who the voters support, it is the counting that matters.
• Beijing could send a few million new electorates to Hong Kong, at least on paper.

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