The current situation in China resembles the conditions that brewed the revolutions of 1848 in Europe: growth of the middle class, spread of literacy, suppressive governments, hardship among ordinary people, etc. People demanded social justice and civil rights. Many lives were lost, but little of lasting value was achieved.
on BBC 4's "In Our Time" programme on Thursday 19, January 2012, Melvyn Bragg and his guests gave a very good summary and analysis of the revolutions of 1948. It was a revolution that swiped across Europe, where liberals rose against conservative governments. According to the programme:
"The rebels were fighting for nationalism, social justice and civil rights, and were prepared to fight in the streets down to the last man. Tens of thousands of people lost their lives; but little of lasting value was achieved, and by the end of the year the liberal revolutions had been soundly beaten."
According to the experts in the programme, many factors contributed to the 1848 revolution. The main factors were the growth of the middle class, spread of literacy, suppressive governments, hardship among ordinary people. The revolutions were triggered by epidemics with soures and cure unknown at the time (cholera).
There is striking similarity between what happened then and what happens now in China (including Hong Kong):
| Europe before 1848 | China today |
| The middle class grew in Europe. | Same today in China. |
| There was increased literacy among the people, who wanted to get involved in discussions of public affairs. Forums for public discussions emerged. | Today, the Internet enables information to spread quickly. |
| There was wide-spread banks failure. | The global banking crisis in 2007-08 has not yet affected China, but we have not seen its full effect yet. |
| There was massive price increase. | Same today |
| European governments relied on censorship and heavy policing to suppress public opinions. | Same today in China |
| There was no democracy, which people demanded. | Same today in China |
| Epidemics broke out; its source and cure were unknown at the time -- cholera. | China experienced the SARS, H5N1 and H7N9 epidemics in recent years. |
| There was serious unemployment. | This has not happened in China yet, but it could happen should the West go into deeper recession. |
The 1848 revolutions failed quickly. Many lives were lost. The resulting governments were even more suppressive than before. There is nothing to gain by anyone in events like this.
Under the conditions then, it was easy to call for revolutions. It would have been better to everyone had those who promoted revolutions had more vision on how to build a better society.
Revolutions did not happen in Britain in 1848.
That was because the middle class there had been pacified by general enfranchisement in the Reform Act 1832.
Giving people a channel to express their opinions is a good way to release pressure.
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