Myth About Economic Growth

Edward Tsang 2015.08.26; revised 2015.09.08

A person stops growing when they reach maturity. Why should we expect economic growth to be the norm? The economic growth of a mature country could be positive or negative, reflecting changes in population profile, inflation, advances in technology, etc.


"Oh dear! My son stopped growing since 25"

How many people would worry about their offspring stop growing after they reach a certain age? It is taken for granted that everything stabilises when it reaches maturity. But most people, from politicians to ordinary people, seem to be worried when the economy doesn't grow. Why?

Where economic growth may come from

One may expect economic growth if the size of the population grows. In that case, when the population ages, and more people retire, one should expect decrease in economic growth.

One may also expect growth as a reflection of inflation; i.e. although there may be no growth in actual production, the value of the production increases in monetary value. In that case, growth rate should be expected to align with inflation rate.

One may also expect growth resulted from technology advances. Innovation stimulates new consumption. But one should also expect old technology to be faded out. For example, the new light bulbs last for much longer, and consume far less electricity. So new technology could also lead to reduced consumption.

Growth in a mature economy

It is difficult to understand why the economy must growth. It is more reasonable to believe that economies will growth until maturity, from which growth reflects changes in population profile, inflation, advances in technology, etc. The net growth could be positive or negative.

Misguided obsession in economic growth

Many politicians are obsessed with economic growth. China enjoyed a growth of over 10% per year for many years. Now they are happy to settle with 7%. 0% growth seem to be an unthinkable proposition. But now that China's GDP has reached US$10 trillion, 7% means US$700 billion. US$700 billion is the GDP of Switzerland, Sweden, Belgium, etc. Where could such grow come from? When China's economy took off, its GDP growth came from export. But this is no longer possible: other countries cannot possible increases their import from China, not because Chinese goods are more expensive, but because nobody has extra money to increase import from China!

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